Recent exchanges between Turkey and Libya’s Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) have raised questions about the future of Turkish policy, considering Ankara’s long opposition to General Khalifa Haftar, the de facto military leader of eastern Libya. READ MORE
Will Washington perceive the Syrian Kurdish cantons as its military outposts, reminiscent of Iraqi Kurdistan after Operation Desert Storm in 1991? Unless the United States accomplishes the daunting task of satisfying both Turkey and the Kurds, the Kurdish cantons will be economically dependent on the Assad regime, which will hamper the PYD’s dreams of autonomy. READ MORE
Two major factors in shaping the future of Iraq’s disputed territories are new population dynamics, with the influx of internal refugees, and the regional power play between Turkey and Iran. The KRG’s internal divisions will also pose a challenge to Washington’s role in mitigating conflict in the disputed territories. READ MORE
The longevity of the Gulf crisis presents challenges to Turkey’s regional policy. First, Ankara’s strong support of Qatar makes Turkey a party to the conflict rather than a mediator, further diminishing its soft power capacity on the Arab street. Second, Turkey’s long-term goals, such as reaching a Free Trade Agreement with the GCC and cooperating in the Gulf defense sector, look unrealistic now, unless the parties involved can reach a durable resolution. Third, a Turkish-Iranian rapprochement is further strengthened as the Qatar crisis becomes more enduring. Turkey’s long-term interests in Iraq, however, strongly overlap with Saudi interests, thus demanding Ankara-Riyadh cooperation. READ MORE
After arduous efforts to reach an agreement with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—formerly known as al-Nusra Front, affiliated with al-Qaeda—the Turkish Armed Forces have deployed troops in northern Idlib across from People’s Protection Units (YPG) positions in the Afrin area. Ankara appears to manage Russian demands without engaging in clashes with HTS militants, and at the same time, to pursue its major goal of surrounding the Kurdish enclave of Afrin. Turkey’s incursion into Idlib, however, may not promise success to Ankara in the long term. READ MORE
As a key player in the crisis resulting from the referendum, Turkey has turned out to be a wild card for KRG officials. Turkey’s potential economic warnings to Iraqi Kurdistan, however, are a double-edged sword. READ MORE
In the context of upcoming national and provincial elections in April 2018, multiple and conflicting Shia parties are vying to benefit from the PMF’s reputation, translating field victories into political scores. READ MORE
Behind the recent rapprochement are several factors, including (1) the Trump Administration’s aggressive Iran policy that culminated in the Gulf crisis and, thus, pushed Ankara and Tehran closer together; (2) Turkey’s increasing frustration with Washington over the Syrian Kurds; and (3) the upcoming Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum that highly disturbs Tehran. READ MORE
As the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) gradually loses its sway in both Iraq and Syria, questions for both countries about the strength of their social fabric and prospects for coexistence became more pertinent than ever. READ MORE
Turkish foreign policy appears compartmentalized for the foreseeable future: in Syria, Ankara will prioritize securing its borders from the emerging threat of a Syrian Kurdistan (also known as Rojava) by cooperating with Moscow; in Iraq, it will seek US support against both the PKK and the Shia militias of the Popular Mobilization Forces. However, while appearing practical, such compartmentalization will pose significant challenges for Turkish influence. READ MORE
